Kerr Trisector Closure (KTC) is a consistency test for the Kerr hypothesis that tries to stay honest about what is actually being inferred from data. The guiding principle is simple: if the exterior spacetime of an astrophysical, stationary, uncharged black hole is Kerr, then there exist parameters $(M,\chi)$ such that every observable in every channel is generated by the same Kerr geometry with those parameters. KTC is just the exercise of turning that sentence into a clean mathematical statement that you can put into a likelihood analysis.
Start with the Kerr family written abstractly as a two-parameter set of spacetimes
$$
\mathcal{K}={( \mathcal{M}, g_{ab}(M,\chi) ) : M>0,; |\chi|<1},
$$
where $M$ is the mass and $\chi = J/M^2$ is the dimensionless spin (using geometric units $G=c=1$). The only thing we will use about Kerr is that any prediction for any measurement in a given “sector” is a deterministic functional of $(M,\chi)$ once you fix nuisance choices like orientation, distance, inclination, etc.
Now define three observational sectors:
Orbital sector $\mathsf{O}$: timelike dynamics, e.g. orbital frequencies, precessions, inspiral phasing in the adiabatic regime.
Ringdown sector $\mathsf{R}$: quasi-normal mode (QNM) spectrum, i.e. complex frequencies $\omega_{\ell m n}(M,\chi)$ and associated amplitudes/phases.
Imaging sector $\mathsf{I}$: null geodesics and radiative transfer, e.g. shadow size/asymmetry, photon ring structure, closure phases, visibility amplitudes.
For each sector $s \in {\mathsf{O},\mathsf{R},\mathsf{I}}$, let $d_s$ denote the data in that sector. A standard statistical model is: conditional on parameters, the data are distributed according to a likelihood
$$
\mathcal{L}_s(d_s \mid \theta_s, \lambda_s),
$$
where
$$
\theta_s = (M_s,\chi_s)
$$
are the Kerr parameters inferred from that sector, and $\lambda_s$ collects nuisance parameters for that sector (distance, inclination, calibration, environment, waveform systematics, scattering, emissivity model, etc.). The key point is not what is inside $\lambda_s$ but that the likelihood for each sector can be written down, at least in principle, as a function of $(M,\chi)$ plus nuisances.
At this point, you have two different hypotheses you can formalize.
1. The “unconstrained” model says each sector can have its own Kerr parameters:
$$
H_{\text{free}}:\quad \theta_{\mathsf{O}},\theta_{\mathsf{R}},\theta_{\mathsf{I}} \text{ are independent a priori.}
$$
- The “closure” model says there is a single Kerr spacetime behind all three:
$$
H_{\text{Kerr}}:\quad \theta_{\mathsf{O}}=\theta_{\mathsf{R}}=\theta_{\mathsf{I}}=\bar\theta,
$$
for some common $\bar\theta = (\bar M,\bar\chi)$.
KTC is the act of comparing these two, or equivalently quantifying how strongly the data prefer a shared $(M,\chi)$ over three separate ones.
To make this rigorous, write the evidence (marginal likelihood) under each model. Under $H_{\text{Kerr}}$, the joint likelihood factorizes across sectors conditional on the shared parameters (this is the usual conditional-independence assumption given the source parameters; if you have shared systematics you can explicitly couple them in the nuisance structure):
$$
\mathcal{L}(d_{\mathsf{O}},d_{\mathsf{R}},d_{\mathsf{I}}\mid \bar\theta,\bar\lambda)
=\prod_{s\in{\mathsf{O},\mathsf{R},\mathsf{I}}} \mathcal{L}s(d_s\mid \bar\theta,\lambda_s),
$$
with $\bar\lambda = (\lambda{\mathsf{O}},\lambda_{\mathsf{R}},\lambda_{\mathsf{I}})$. The evidence is then
$$
Z_{\text{Kerr}}
=\int \left[\prod_{s}\mathcal{L}_s(d_s\mid \bar\theta,\lambda_s)\right],
\pi(\bar\theta),\prod_s \pi(\lambda_s), d\bar\theta, d\lambda_s.
$$
Under $H_{\text{free}}$, you allow independent Kerr parameters per sector:
$$
Z_{\text{free}}
=\int \left[\prod_{s}\mathcal{L}_s(d_s\mid \theta_s,\lambda_s)\right],
\left[\prod_s \pi(\theta_s)\pi(\lambda_s)\right],
\prod_s d\theta_s, d\lambda_s.
$$
A clean closure statistic is the Bayes factor
$$
\mathcal{B}=\frac{Z_{\text{Kerr}}}{Z_{\text{free}}}.
$$
If $\mathcal{B}$ is large, the data prefer the shared-parameter Kerr description. If $\mathcal{B}$ is small, the data prefer letting the sectors drift apart in $(M,\chi)$, which is exactly what “failure of closure” means in a statistically coherent way.
If you prefer a frequentist formulation, you can do essentially the same thing with a constrained versus unconstrained maximum-likelihood comparison. Define the log-likelihoods
$$
\ell_{\text{free}} = \sum_s \max_{\theta_s,\lambda_s} \log \mathcal{L}s(d_s\mid \theta_s,\lambda_s),
$$
$$
\ell{\text{Kerr}} = \max_{\bar\theta,\bar\lambda} \sum_s \log \mathcal{L}s(d_s\mid \bar\theta,\lambda_s).
$$
Then a likelihood-ratio test statistic is
$$
\Lambda = 2(\ell{\text{free}}-\ell_{\text{Kerr}}).
$$
Heuristically, $\Lambda$ measures the “penalty” for forcing the three sectors to share the same $(M,\chi)$. Under regularity conditions and in an asymptotic regime, $\Lambda$ is approximately $\chi^2$ distributed with degrees of freedom equal to the number of constraints, which here is $4$ (two parameters per sector, three sectors gives $6$ parameters, constrained model has $2$). In practice, because the models can be nonlinear and posteriors non-Gaussian, you calibrate $\Lambda$ by simulation.
So far, this is structure and not physics. The physics enters when you specify what each sector is actually measuring, meaning how $(M,\chi)$ shows up in observables.
For the orbital sector, the typical statement is that certain gauge-invariant frequencies (azimuthal, radial, polar) for bound Kerr geodesics are functions of $(M,\chi)$ and constants of motion. A standard representation is
$$
\Omega_i = \Omega_i(M,\chi; p,e,\iota),
$$
where $(p,e,\iota)$ parametrize the orbit (semi-latus rectum, eccentricity, inclination), and $i$ ranges over the fundamental frequencies. Observationally you do not measure $(p,e,\iota)$ directly; they become part of the nuisance structure or dynamical parameterization, but the core point remains: the orbital likelihood has a map from $(M,\chi)$ into predicted timing and phasing data.
For the ringdown sector, the measurable quantities are complex mode frequencies. For a Kerr black hole,
$$
\omega_{\ell m n} = \frac{1}{M}, f_{\ell m n}(\chi),
$$
for some dimensionless functions $f_{\ell m n}$ determined by black hole perturbation theory (Teukolsky equation with appropriate boundary conditions). The $1/M$ scaling is exact because Kerr has no length scale other than $M$ in geometric units, and the dependence on $\chi$ is encoded in the dimensionless eigenvalue problem. The ringdown likelihood is built from comparing measured $(\Re \omega, \Im \omega)$ (and amplitudes) to these predictions.
For the imaging sector, the clean geometric object is the photon region and its projection onto the observer sky. The boundary of the Kerr shadow can be written in terms of critical impact parameters that are functions of $(M,\chi)$ and the observer inclination $i$. One convenient parameterization uses the constants of motion $(\xi,\eta)$ for null geodesics and gives celestial coordinates $(\alpha,\beta)$ on the image plane:
$$
\alpha = -\frac{\xi}{\sin i}, \qquad
\beta = \pm \sqrt{\eta + a^2\cos^2 i – \xi^2 \cot^2 i},
$$
with $a=\chi M$. The critical curve is obtained by selecting $(\xi,\eta)$ corresponding to unstable spherical photon orbits. Again, the details are not the point here; the point is that there is an explicit deterministic forward model from $(M,\chi)$ (plus inclination and emission model nuisances) to interferometric observables.
Once you accept that each sector admits a forward model, the closure logic becomes almost tautological: Kerr predicts that the same $(M,\chi)$ must fit all three forward models simultaneously. KTC is the quantitative version of “simultaneously.”
It is also useful to write the closure condition in a way that looks like something you can plot. From each sector you can compute a posterior for $\theta_s$ after marginalizing nuisance parameters:
$$
p_s(\theta_s\mid d_s)
\propto \int \mathcal{L}s(d_s\mid \theta_s,\lambda_s),\pi(\theta_s),\pi(\lambda_s), d\lambda_s.
$$
Under the closure hypothesis, you want these to be consistent with a single $\bar\theta$. A natural diagnostic is the product posterior (sometimes called posterior pooling under conditional independence)
$$
p{\text{pool}}(\bar\theta \mid d_{\mathsf{O}},d_{\mathsf{R}},d_{\mathsf{I}})
\propto \pi(\bar\theta)\prod_s \frac{p_s(\bar\theta\mid d_s)}{\pi(\bar\theta)},
$$
which simplifies to a product of likelihood contributions if the priors are aligned. In a Gaussian approximation where each sector yields a mean $\mu_s$ and covariance $\Sigma_s$ in the $(M,\chi)$ plane, you can make the closure tension extremely explicit. The pooled estimator has covariance
$$
\Sigma_{\text{pool}}^{-1} = \sum_s \Sigma_s^{-1},
$$
and mean
$$
\mu_{\text{pool}} = \Sigma_{\text{pool}}\left(\sum_s \Sigma_s^{-1}\mu_s\right).
$$
Then a standard quadratic tension statistic is
$$
T = \sum_s (\mu_s-\mu_{\text{pool}})^{\mathsf{T}}\Sigma_s^{-1}(\mu_s-\mu_{\text{pool}}).
$$
If Kerr is correct and the error models are accurate, $T$ should be “reasonable” relative to its expected distribution (again, best calibrated by injection studies). If $T$ is systematically large, you have a closure failure.
What is nice about this formulation is that it cleanly separates two questions that often get mixed up.
First: does each sector individually admit a Kerr fit? This is about whether $\mathcal{L}_s$ has support near some Kerr parameters.
Second: are the Kerr parameters inferred by each sector consistent with each other? This is the closure question. You can pass the first and fail the second, and that second failure is exactly the kind of thing you would expect from a theory that mimics Kerr in one channel but not in another, or from unmodeled environmental/systematic effects that contaminate one sector differently.
So the rigorous derivation of KTC is basically the derivation of a constrained inference problem. You define three sector likelihoods with their own nuisances, you impose the identification $\theta_{\mathsf{O}}=\theta_{\mathsf{R}}=\theta_{\mathsf{I}}$, and you quantify the loss of fit relative to the unconstrained model. Everything else is implementation detail.
If you want one line that captures the whole test, it is this: KTC is the comparison of
$$
H_{\text{Kerr}}:\exists,\bar\theta\text{ such that }\forall s,; d_s \sim \mathcal{L}s(\cdot\mid \bar\theta,\lambda_s)
$$
against
$$
H{\text{free}}:\forall s,\exists,\theta_s\text{ such that } d_s \sim \mathcal{L}_s(\cdot\mid \theta_s,\lambda_s),
$$
with the comparison done via a Bayes factor $\mathcal{B}$ or a likelihood-ratio statistic $\Lambda$.